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Your Weekly Geopolitical Dispatch
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Welcome to Your Weekly Geopolitical Dispatch, a collaboration between Meridian and Geopolitical Strategy, created exclusively for Meridianâs Corporate Council Members.
Each week, we provide a concise overview of the five most significant geopolitical developments and their implications for business and global markets.
This briefing is produced in partnership with Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specializing in geopolitical risk, strategy, and corporate diplomacy. The insights featured here are drawn from Geopolitical Dispatch, Geopolitical Strategyâs daily intelligence report, modeled on the Presidentâs Daily Brief and designed for senior decision-makers.
Meridian Corporate Council Members have the opportunity to access the full daily briefing at a special rate, available below.
The 5 things you need to know this week
- ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Trump tries to wrong foot his Gaza critics.
- CHINA. UNITED STATES. Xi and Trump play economic chicken.
- ISRAEL. PALESTINE. A proposal to âtake overâ Gaza is a mirage in the desert.
- MEXICO. CANADA. Trumpâs border security gambit works.
- MEXICO. UNITED STATES. A day to determine bark versus bite.

ISRAEL. PALESTINE. No dream is too bigly
Trump wants to wrongfoot his Gaza critics.
Donald Trump said Israel would hand Gaza to the US "at the conclusion of fighting" in a doubling-down of recent remarks Thursday. Marco Rubio would soon visit the region, the State Department said. Cairo and Amman issued warnings.
INTELLIGENCE. Jordan's king and Egypt's president are due to visit the White House next week. Both have condemned the plan. Rubio wants the region to âfind a solutionâ. Trump seems minded to force them to make a better offer. Israel is goading Europe to do the same. Its defence minister called on Ireland and Spain, frequent critics of the war, to take in Gaza's 2 million residents. The White House has sanctioned on the International Criminal Court.
FOR BUSINESS. Anyone can be a critic, particularly if youâre a sanctimonious European. Israelâs call for Madrid and Dublin to accept Palestinian migrants seems absurd, but no more than Trumpâs original idea for Gazaâs redevelopment. Pressure could be applied. Spain underspends in NATO. Ireland undercuts US tax rates. Their prime ministers have been outspoken critics of Trump. Between putting up and shutting up the latter course seems wise.

CHINA. UNITED STATES. From pillar to post
Xi and Trump play economic chicken.
China launched dispute actions at the World Trade Organization Wednesday in the wake of US tariffs. The US Postal Service resumed package deliveries from China and Hong Kong after a pause to determine levy collection processes.
INTELLIGENCE. Among the Trump administrationâs changes was the removal of âde minimisâ exemptions on imports worth under $800 (e.g., most goods on Temu, Amazon and Shein). This will help large retailers but cost online shoppers. Beijing may hope their inconvenience causes Washington to blink but Trump has indicated heâs in no hurry to speak to his counterpart. So far, Beijingâs countermeasures, including the WTO action, have been largely symbolic.
FOR BUSINESS. The WTOâs disputes panel is currently in abeyance (thanks also to Trump) and countermeasures on LNG and coal will simply reroute fungible exports. A probe against Google wonât make much difference to Alphabet. But China can hit the US if it wants to, by going after agriculture and politically exposed firms like Tesla. Neither wants mutually assured destruction, but they donât want to look weak. New ways to signal conciliation will need to be found.

ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Developer's nightmare
A proposal to âtake overâ Gaza is a mirage in the desert.
Speaking after a meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu, Donald Trump said "the US will take over the Gaza Strip" Tuesday and "level it out" for redevelopment. Hamas said Wednesday it was "ready for contact" with the Trump administration.
INTELLIGENCE. Calling Gaza "the Riviera of the Middle East", Trump said the takeover would involve US troops âif necessary". But after promising voters a withdrawal from the region, the occupation of its most volatile strip seems debateable, to say the least. It will also seem so to Israelâs neighbours, whoâve so far rebuffed any resettlement of Gazaâs 2 million residents. Trumpâs remarks should be seen as a gambit to distract or to bargain for something else.
FOR BUSINESS. Throwing a dead cat (or trial balloon) on the table is in keeping with the art of the deal, but after ambit claims on Mexico and Greenland, Trump risks crying wolf. That said, if the idea is serious there would need to be a sufficient quid pro quo to make it work, such as a two-state solution, which Saudi Arabia reiterated Wednesday was an âexplicitâ condition for recognising Israel. And there would need to be a quid pro quo for sceptical isolationists.

MEXICO. CANADA. Standoff averted
Trumpâs border security gambit works.
US threats to impose 25% tariffs were paused for 30 days after Mexico and Canada agreed to reinforce their borders and stem the smuggling of fentanyl. The White House said Ottawa had "misunderstood" earlier threats as a âtrade warâ.
INTELLIGENCE. Despite avoiding almost certain recession, Justin Trudeau looks chastened, after an impassioned speech on trade and trust was belied by a last-minute reversal on some relatively straightforward and modest security measures. Whether these ultimately satisfy Donald Trump is up for debate, but cooler heads in Washington will grasp the risks of escalation. Claudia Sheinbaum, by contrast, appears a winner, characterising the pause as her idea.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump's threats were always about politics, not economics. Whoever replaces Trudeau in the Liberal Party may have a better sense of the president's logic but will still struggle to convince Canadians they can handle it. The Conservatives' Pierre Poilievre, by contrast, is using the events to attack longstanding provincial trade barriers, which have so far eluded Trudeau. Dismantling these is good domestic policy, and may also avoid a real trade war.

MEXICO. UNITED STATES. Crunch time
A day to determine bark versus bite.
Donald Trump said he would speak to the leaders of Mexico and Canada Monday, before 25% tariffs signed Saturday are due to take effect. Military strikes on Mexican cartels were âon the tableâ Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said.
INTELLIGENCE. Whether Trump ultimately sees tariffs as a means or an end, the current threat is more of a cudgel, linked explicitly to fentanyl and migration, rather than the balance of trade. This gives Mexico a way out other than retaliatory steps, which would only harm its economy more. And by dragging Canada (and China) into the net, Mexico has more potential sources of funding for any creative solution (like a reprise of Nixonâs 1969 Operation Intercept).
FOR BUSINESS. Markets, eyeing threats not just from Mexico, but Ottawa and Beijing, have begun to panic. Politically, should a solution not be found in the next few days, the test will be on 10 February, when Super Bowl fans notice their guacamole costs 25% more. Mexico exported 137,500 tonnes of (highly perishable) avocado for last yearâs game. National Maple Syrup Day, by contrast, isnât until December, also the peak season for purchases of Chinese imports.
About Geopolitical Dispatch
"The difference between reading the news and knowing what it means"
Every morning, before markets open, business leaders, investors, and policymakers wake up to a world in motion. Stock markets shift. Energy prices fluctuate. Governments make decisions that shape economies. In this environment, geopolitical awareness is not optionalâit is essential.
Geopolitical Dispatch provides clear, concise intelligence on the five most important geopolitical developments each day, focusing on what matters for business, finance, and global stability. Modeled on the U.S. Presidentâs Daily Brief, it is designed to help decision-makers see whatâs coming, assess the risks, and act with confidence.
Written by former diplomats and senior advisors, Geopolitical Dispatch is Geopolitical Strategy's client briefing trusted by CEOs, hedge fund managers, and policymakers worldwide. It is built for those who need timely, actionable insights without the noise, speculation, or partisanship of traditional news.Â
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