Meridian + Geopolitical Strategy

Your Weekly Geopolitical Dispatch

Welcome to Your Weekly Geopolitical Dispatch, a collaboration between Meridian and Geopolitical Strategy, created exclusively for Meridian’s Corporate Council Members.

Each week, we provide a concise overview of the most significant geopolitical developments and their implications for business and global markets in a letter from Michael Feller, Chief Strategist, as well as the full text of the latest edition.

This briefing is produced in partnership with Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specializing in geopolitical risk, strategy, and corporate diplomacy. The insights featured here are drawn from Geopolitical Dispatch, Geopolitical Strategy’s daily intelligence report, modeled on the President’s Daily Brief and designed for senior decision-makers.

Meridian Corporate Council Members have the opportunity to access one month's complimentary access to Geopolitical Dispatch.

This Week in Geopolitics

The week in geopolitics began with the calling of a snap poll in Canada. It ended with a snap visit by JD Vance to Greenland (his attendance at a dogsled race was cancelled due to public outrage). 

In between, cases against South Korea's acting president and opposition leader were overturned, cases against Brazil and Turkey's opposition leaders were introduced, and a ceasefire was agreed then un-agreed in Ukraine. Thailand's prime minister also survived a no-confidence vote.

Elsewhere, the threat of civil war returned in South Sudan as peace efforts broke down in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Khartoum was captured in Sudan as fighting continued in Gaza. And Australia revealed an early budget and announced a long-awaited election.

But the week was most notable for a series of brain snaps in Washington, which, ahead of next week’s “Liberation Day” on reciprocal tariffs, threaten yet more market turmoil and policy uncertainty.

The first of these snaps was the announcement of “secondary tariffs” on purchases of Venezuelan oil. Alongside a seeming acquiescence from Caracas to accept increased repatriation flights, plus an extension of Chevron’s waiver period in which to wind up its operations, the move was unexpected. Likewise, ahead of Marco Rubio’s visit to neighbouring Guyana, the tariffs seemed an odd way to encourage Nicolas Maduro’s cooperation. But most of all, the idea of secondary tariffs – whereby third countries who purchase Venezuelan crude will be subjected to 25% duties from the US – turns a trade tool into a sanctions-like instrument of coercion. Sure, it was always thus (at least in the current administration), but now it’s official. Watch out for others to follow suit with such “tariffs” of their own.

The second was the announcement of 25% “permanent” automotive tariffs, for finished vehicles and parts, which have roiled Detroit carmakers but have been welcomed by the unions and, seemingly, Tesla, which at least sees a further commitment to keeping out the likes of China’s BYD. The decision to implement these, irrespective of USMCA commitments, appears to be the final nail for free trade. It’s possible that, like previous measures and the Venezuela example above, they will be more a temporary cudgel than a long-term policy, but the rhetoric suggests otherwise. Unsurprisingly, household and business indicators, plus economist forecasts, are increasingly signalling a policy-induced recession.

And the third was the leak of a private Signal conversation between senior US officials on operations in Yemen. The brain snap, in this case, appears to have been National Security Adviser Mike Waltz’s decision to invite the editor of The Atlantic (no fan of the administration) to the chat, where classified matters were discussed on an unclassified system. But this was not just damaging for optics and OPSEC (i.e., operational security), but for diplomacy. Included in The Atlantic’s subsequent scoop were some frank discussions around getting Europe to pay for the operations. Providing security-as-a-service makes sense in business (or a Francis Ford Coppola film), but in geopolitics, it’s the kind of thing that kills a hegemonic order (i.e., the US-led liberal rules-based order).

As each week passes and allied trust continues to erode, we expect yet more volatility. Trade wars between friends are one thing. The unravelling of alliances that have kept global commerce possible is another. Be careful out there.